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You (probably) can hold out for more than the $15 million a year Boston is reportedly offering you, Jason Bay. Based on his hitting, Jason Bay would be a "five win" (above replacement, or WAR) player. At $4 million a WAR, (the going free agent rate), Bay should be worth something like $20 million a year, at least for the first two years. (Maybe with third and fourth year cuts to $18 and $15 million to reflect his aging.) But the conventional wisdom is that Bay may be worth as little as $12-$14 million. That's not misguided, because Bay is now MINUS at least one and a half wins on defense. Even since he hurt his knee in 2007, he has very limited range. This leads to a low ultimate zone range (UZR) score. On the other hand, he is a fine defender in the "traditional" sense, making few errors ...

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Article written by Tom Au

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