Good Things Never Last: Why Chris Carpenter Will Regress in 2010

Posted: 20th December 2009 by Lewie Pollis in MLB
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IÆm not normally one to criticize Chris Carpenter. I spent a solid month arguing with whoever would listen about why he should win the Cy Young, and even wrote a manifesto about why he was a the best choice. This past season was by far the best of his career (despite the fact that he actually did win the Cy Young in 2005). He compiled career-bests in ERA (2.24), WHIP (1.007), batting average allowed (.226), and OPS allowed (.581). Unfortunately, with all due respect to Mr. Carpenter, there is no way he will put up similarly dominant numbers in 2010. The first sign that Carpenter is in for a decline involves no sabermetric theories or heavy brain wrinkling; his age and injury history suggest that his dominance is unsustainable. Carpenter will be 35 next season, and heÆs always struggled t ...

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